What happens to affordability? Trump ignores it, forsakes middle ground despite slide in popularity

HOUSTON – President Donald Trump missed an opportunity to address the central concern of Americans – affordability – in

his Feb 24 State of the Union speech

before a joint session of Congress. 

He mainly catered to his political base, touting achievements on crime and illegal immigration and needling Democrats, in a bid to reverse

his declining popularity

. 

Such rhetoric may energise supporters, but it is unlikely to help him win over the critical independent voters in the Nov 3 midterm elections or shore up legislative support to push through his agenda. 

“Our nation is back: bigger, better, richer, and stronger than ever before,” Mr Trump said in a surprisingly sober speech that lasted a record one hour and 48 minutes, drawing several rounds of standing ovation from Republican lawmakers.

He spoke of a “turnaround for the ages” in which things look rosy – inflation is under control and jobs are being created in a reindustrialising economy stoked by low taxes and trillions in foreign investment.

Mr Trump also claimed to have “solved” the affordability crisis created by the Democrats. “Their policies created the high prices. Our policies are rapidly ending them. We are doing really well,” he said.

Yet, public sentiment suggests a more complicated reality.

One year into his second term, most Americans’ views of their President are more negative than positive.

By more than two to one, Americans say his administration’s actions have been worse than expected (50 per cent), rather than better (21 per cent), based on a Pew Research Center poll of 8,512 US adults conducted from Jan 20 to 26.

Losing support among Republicans

Only about a quarter of Americans (27 per cent) say they support all or most of Mr Trump’s policies and plans, down from the 35 per cent when he returned to office in 2025. Worryingly for Mr Trump, that change has come entirely among Republicans.

The Cook Political Report, which tracks Mr Trump’s base of white, non-college voters, found that his 13-point net approval in early 2025 had slumped to a 3.5-point lead as at Feb 23.

Perhaps most damning for a President whose strong suit has been the economy, an AP-NORC poll conducted from Feb 5 to 8 among 1,156 adults found that just 39 per cent approve of his handling of the economy.

The economy is relatively steady, with

gross domestic product growth at 2.2 per cent

in 2025, slightly above the 2 per cent considered usual for developed economies. Unemployment stood at about 4.3 per cent in January, low by historical standards. Inflation slowed in January to an annual rate of 2.4 per cent, down from 2.7 per cent in December. But Americans have not seen personal finances improve significantly, and the elevated prices of groceries, healthcare and housing remain a pain point.

The disconnect between Mr Trump and Americans was evident during the speech, said Mr Aaron Kall, director of debate at the University of Michigan and a political commentator. “His speech was something of a victory lap. But given his low ratings, I thought he would be more empathetic about people still not participating in the renaissance that he talked about,” Mr Kall said.

It appeared that Mr Trump was trying to shore up political space with his base, he added. 

“There was a lot of red meat for supporters. Mr Trump was talking about crime, immigration and needling the Democrats. I don’t know that it will be as positively received with independent voters, and certainly not Democrats.” 

At one point, Mr Trump asked lawmakers to stand if they agreed with his statement: “The first duty of the American government is to protect American citizens, not illegal aliens.” 

When the Democrats did not stand, he told them: “You should be ashamed of yourself.”

But immigration is no longer a sure bet for Mr Trump, with polls showing a fall in support after aggressive deportations and the

deaths of two American citizens

during encounters with federal agents in Minneapolis in January.

Recent Gallup data shows that a record 45 per cent of Americans now identify as independents, with especially strong growth among under-30s. The rest of the voters are equally split among the two major parties, at about 27 per cent each.

What to expect from midterm elections?

Not reaching across the aisle will cost Mr Trump the support he needs from Democrats to pass pending legislation and end the partial shutdown that has

starved funding to the Department of Homeland Security

.

“He took the short-term political view as opposed to playing the long game for the remaining years of this presidency,” Mr Kall said.

Throughout the speech, Mr Trump largely followed the script, probably to the relief of his staff, noted Mr Bryan DeAngelis, a partner at Washington-based Penta Global, a strategic advisory consultancy.

“That can be the biggest challenge with Trump. Can he keep on message or does he get distracted by his pet peeves or personal vendettas,” Mr DeAngelis said. “But the bigger question is, how much will this matter? Unless something dramatically changes in the economy, people are still going to have those issues of affordability.”

Republicans hold a slim four-seat majority in the House of Representatives. If Mr Trump’s approval ratings do not improve, they might have to relinquish control in the midterm elections, now less than nine months away.

“We’ll continue to see a lot of partisan rhetoric over the next several months. The Democrats will need to stay disciplined and keep focused on the economy rather than making this all about Trump and his behaviour in office,” Mr DeAngelis said.

Geopolitics did not feature prominently in Mr Trump’s speech despite

growing expectations of a US military strike on Iran

. And he was less rancorous on tariffs than expected.

He again expressed his disappointment with the

Feb 20 Supreme Court ruling

that struck down his use of a 1977 law to impose tariffs on nearly all countries in April 2025. But he did not mock the four out of nine justices who were present at his speech. “As time goes by, I believe the tariffs paid for by foreign countries will, like in the past, substantially replace the modern day system of income tax, taking a great financial burden off the people that I love,” he said, repeating his claim despite research showing that American companies and consumers ultimately bear the costs of the tariffs.

In the Democratic rebuttal, Virginia Governor Abigail Spanberger, who

won a landslide victory

against her Republican rival in November 2025, harped on affordability – the issue that her party sees as its ticket to regaining power.

“Is the President working to make life more affordable for you and your family? Is the President working to keep Americans safe, both at home and abroad? Is the President working for you?” she asked. “Since this President took office last year, his reckless trade policies have forced American families to pay more than US$1,700 (S$2,152) each in tariff costs,” she said.

“They’re making your life more expensive.”